Random mechanics and drop rates

Random mechanics and drop rates

07.10.2021 16:30

Development Blog

Random mechanics and drop rates

Commanders!

Earlier, when we shared a list of different planned measures directed at improving World of Warships, we promised that we would publish all drop rates for all Containers and Random bundles over the course of 2022. Today we’re ready to share some progress in this direction with you.

The first drop rates will be disclosed in the closest days on the Chinese server for certain containers that will be added there. As for the rest of the servers — starting in November 2021, all new containers and random bundles added for sale will be accompanied by a full disclosure of their drop rates. Big upcoming yearly activities such as Black Friday and New Year will therefore already be affected by this change.

As far as existing containers which are currently on sale in the Armory and other places for various resources, as well as free containers — we will likewise disclose their probabilities no later than April 2022. The reason for the later implementation of these particular drop rates is because we need time to prepare and localize the relevant new texts and allow for a technical QA process. In an effort to try to fulfill our promise as soon as possible, we’ve decided to start off by taking care of new containers, as they always spark the most interest.

So, in short:

Starting in November 2021, all new containers and random bundles will be sold with drop rates disclosed;

After April 2022, this will be true for all obtainable containers and random bundles in the game

Basic Mechanics

Of course, a detailed description will be published for specific containers at a later date, but for now we would like to briefly talk about the basic container drop mechanics using an example container.

(Sorry about

VI Dunkerque

‘s flag, we were too occupied with the text and missed a mistake)

The contents of each container can be of one of two types: a specific item or a group of items. When a container is opened, the first thing that’s determined is which item or item group should be dropped considering the stated probabilities. If an item group drops, then the specific item inside the group that will subsequently drop is determined with equal probabilities.

For example, if an item from a “Ships” item group containing 4 ships should be dropped, and you don’t already have any of them in your port, then the chance to get any one of the ships in the group is 25%. If you already have one of these ships, then the chance to get one of the remaining 3 ships is 33%.

Please note, that the first thing to determine is if you get an item from a group, and only after it – which specific item. The probability of getting a specific group does not depend on how many items inside said group you already have.

Probabilities and expected values

The content of a container is determined randomly when it is opened based on the set probabilities. It is important to understand an expected value and how it works. A probability does not guarantee that opening a specific number of containers will give you the desired reward. For example, the probability to get a specific reward set to 10% does not mean that you’re guaranteed to get it if you open enough containers. Statistics and probabilities best reflect the situation for a large number of events (in this example, the event is opening one container). The bigger the number of said events is, the closer the result will be to the expected value. For example, tossing a coin 10 times won’t necessarily lead to 5 tails and 5 heads even though the probability is 50% for each of them. But if there would be many thousands of coin tosses, then the share of different sides will be close to 50%.

As a consequence of this peculiarity, there might be those who’re lucky with opening containers and those who are not. It is possible that even opening 50 containers a player won’t get a desired reward which has a 10% drop chance, just because chance was not on their side. At the same time, unlike the “lucky” ones who get the desired item from their first container, or get 5 of such items from their 10 first containers, the first player could be upset by the outcome. And the fact that, statistically, the number of people with that same outcome is very low is hardly a consolation for the player.

Guaranteed drop

That’s why, besides probabilities for containers, we’ve also created a special mechanic a while back which guarantees that a certain item group with a reward will drop after a specific number of containers were opened. This mechanic protects players from severe “bad luck” and works the same way for everybody. The only thing taken into consideration is the number of containers of the same type opened by a player.

For example, if you don’t get the “Ships” item group drop after opening specific number of containers containers, then the next container opened is guaranteed to drop a reward from this group.

The counter for a guaranteed drop of a certain item is reset when this item is dropped, be it randomly or because of the counter being triggered. Drop rates are stated without consideration of this mechanic, as it just forces the specific reward without random. Together with its drop rates, we will also let you know if this mechanic is present and what its settings are when a container becomes available so that you can have a full understanding of how it works so that that you can make an informed decision when purchasing containers.

Informing

In relation to this news, there are two other promises worth mentioning: a warning about the nature of randomness and additional protection for minors. In the next months, all containers and Random bundles which are sold for money or doubloons:

Will have a warning about their random nature and the need to make weighted purchases.

Will have an 18+ age confirmation prompt before the purchase is made.

Lastly, following another of our promises, we continue to search for alternative purchasing mechanics that don’t necessarily involve a random factor. For example, in 0.10.9, we’re using the Auction for early access to Tier X German Battleship Schlieffen instead of random bundles or containers.

We hope you will like these steps towards greater openness and awareness-raising, and we will continue to inform you on our progress.

Thank you.

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